Editing 76-15-A3 (section)

=== Transcript ===
I've been out around the country recently in a number of states filling
some speaking engagements. When you do this, you usually meet members of the
press who have a question or two. Of late, those questions have had to do with
my remarks about the proposed energy legislation and why I don't buy the C.I.A.
report quoted by the President --which has us running out of oil in about 30 years.

Well, it's true. I don't buy that report and if the President does, then
isn't his plea for conservation to reduce consumption by 10% rather futile?
If all the oil is going to be gone in 30 years, does it really make much difference
if we make it last 33?

I don't believe it will be gone in 30 or 33 years. In 1914, the United
States Bureau of Mines projected future production of crude oil at 5.7 billion
barrels. Since then, we've produced 34 billion. Incidentally, about that same
time we were told there was no hope of ever finding oil in Texas or Kansas.

In 1920, we were told we'd be out of oil in 15 years. Nineteen years later,
in 1939, the Department of Interior told us we'd run out in 13 years. Since then,
we have discovered more than the total known oil reserves we had at that time.

In 1948, the proven reserves in all of the free world amounted to 62.3
billion barrels. Within 24 years they were nine times as many.

In 1949, our Department of Interior said the end of the U.S. oil supply
was in sight. We increased production in the next five years by a million
barrels a day.

By 1970, known world reserves were six times as large as they were in 1950'.
To digress for a moment, this holds true for virtually all the minerals our
advanced industrial economy depends on. To give just a few examples -- known
reserves of iron between 1950 and 1970 increased 1,321%, chrome 675%, copper 279%,
and phosphates 4,430%. To get back to oil reserves -- they had increased 507%.

Significantly and contrary to much of what is being said, the amount of proven
reserves is increasing faster than the rate of consumption.

The National Academy of Engineering explains that U.S. oil reserves discovered
to date total 430 billion barrels, but low cost conventional technology will
only get 140 billion barrels out of the ground. This leaves more than twice that
much~- 290 billion barrels, much of which can be recovered by more expensive
techniques, if the government will allow the price of oil to respond to market
demands.

Seven years ago we were producing 9.6 million barrels every day. Now we're
only pumping 8.1. The decline is caused by restrictions imposed by government.
Having reduced production, the government now proposes that we reduce consumption.
For 25 years every 1% rise in price resulted in a 4% increase in the supply
of gasoline. Why don't we try the free market again? 

This is Ronald Reagan.

Thanks for listening.

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