Editing 79-12-A1 (section)

=== Transcript ===
At the Vienna summit in June, the frail health of Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev
was revealed to the world on television. Since the summit, speculation over Chairman
Brezhnev's successor has heightened. Despite the best efforts of the Soviet hierarchy
to effect an orderly transition of power, the process has already triggered
intense competition, infighting and alliances around different prospective leaders.

What kind of leader are the Soviets looking for to assume the all-important
post of General Secretary of the Communist party? Most likely, the new chief will
have to be a Russian, the dominant nationality of the Soviet Union, even though
Russians account for only half of the population. He will have acquired a solid
background in fields such as agriculture. foreign policy and industrial management. Much
more so than an American president, he will have to have strong ties with influence
in all facets of the party.

Of primary concern to Americans is the kind of foreign policy we can expect by
the new Soviet leadership. Will it follow the present Soviet course of meddling in
various ways in all corners of the globe? Or will it adopt a lower profile abroad and
focus instead on the U.S.S.R.'s serious economic problems?

The odds are that Soviet aggressiveness will not diminish upon the succession of
Brezhnev. If any change occurs, it could be in the direction of even greater Russian
adventurism in the international scene.

The odds are that Soviet aggressiveness will not diminish upon the succession of
Brezhnev. If any change occurs, it could be in the direction of even greater Russian
adventurism in the international scene.

Many Western observers assume, erroneously, that a wide range of opinion on
foreign policy options divides the top echelon of Soviet leadership. Richard Harrison,
a foreign policy expert for the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based think-tank,
explains that there is a tendency in the United States--"to see Soviet politics as
basically a 'mirror image' of ours, replete with 'hawks,' 'doves' and other contending
factions." The hope that there is a more peaceful faction in the Soviet hierarchy
poised and ready to fight for power upon the passing of Brezhnev from the
scene is a naïve over-simplification, he notes.

The more plausible possibility is that the new leadership will be even more
adventuresome than the Brezhnev regime. The reason, Harrison, explains, is that--
"the next leadership team will be the first to achieve power when the Soviet Union
is not recognized as militarily inferior to the United States ... This new sense of
power might actually encourage expansionist tendencies within the new leadership."
However bitter and messy the struggle to succeed Brezhnev turns out to be, we
should not assume that this dissension reflects significant policy differences among
the competing factions. Rather, it may be little more than a cut-throat power-grab
which is characteristic of Communist dictatorships during periods of leadership
succession. 

This is Ronald Reagan.

Thanks for listening.
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