75-01-B2
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Unemployment(2)
TranscriptIf a 14 year old wants a paper route but doesn't have one he may end up as an unemployment statistic. I'll be right back. Thomas Jefferson once said, "If a nation expects to be ignorant and free in a state of civilization it expects what never was and never will be." right now, there's a dangerous amount of ignorance about the way we determine the percentage of unemployment in this country. As a result, we're apt to think the worst about the nation's economy without real reason. Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics comes forth with a pronouncement of the unemployment rate, right down to one tenth of one percent. They make it sound so authoritative and accurate that we're inclined to believe governments developed a method of counting that's so meticulous and thorough it notes even the sparrows fall. actually, the unemployment rate is nothing more than an estimate based on a sampling in some 300 districts throughout the country roughly 50,000 telephone calls are made each month. If they reach a household where papa's holding down a steady job but mama says she wishes she had a part-time job, mama becomes a statistic and is listed as one of the unemployed. Not only that, but let junior, age 14, express a desire to have a paper route and he too joins the army of unemployed, and the figures go up. If, by some chance, the head of the household, the family earner who puts the bread on the table is between jobs, no notice taken of the fact that he might have quit voluntarily to take a better job, he's unemployed, period, just as much as the person was laid off or dropped from his job for economic reasons. One of those 300 districts is San Jose, California, population about five hundred thousand. Every month the bureau makes 125 telephone calls in that area. Hypothetically, if nine individuals in response to those calls describe themselves as wanting a job, the San Jose unemployment rate is officially seven point two percent. Now, next month, when they call, if they get ten answers instead of nine up one from the previous month, the unemployment rate jumps from seven point two to a full eight percent. Right now, based on this kind of sampling, we're told there are five and a half million unemployed in the United States, yet jobs are going begging in many parts of the country. eighty percent of that five and a half million unemployed is made up of teenagers and others looking for their first job, people seeking part-time work only and women who want a job but don't actually need one to support themselves. England, with far more inflation and recession than we have, has an unemployment rate of only two or two and a half percent compared to our six plus or seven, if we use their system of counting, our own rate would be less than one percent. In England, they only count as unemployed those full-time wage earners who are the principal support of the household and who lost their jobs through no fault of their own. When unemployment figures are used to trigger costly tax-supported aid programs of an emergency nature is it right to base those figures on layoffs resulting from strikes or people who choose not to work and youngsters whose unemployment. While a personal problem for them and one we'd like to solve still represents no family distress or hardship. Tomorrow you'll learn how unemployment can increase about 30 percent without anyone losing his job. This is Ronald Reagan. Thanks for listening. |
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