78-11-A2
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Salt Talks II
TranscriptWhat time is it on history's clock for us as a nation? The other day, a noted scholar told me his estimate was five minutes to midnight. I'll be right back. On the last broadcast I quoted a former Secretary of the Air Force Tom Reed regarding the Soviet build-up of military power and the dates by which they'd achieved significant military posts. Today I'd like to continue and start with a future date, 1985. Quite a while ago I did a commentary which involved 1985. Our military intelligence had learned that Brezhnev told a secret meeting of Communist leaders that detente was a stratagem to allow the Soviets time to build up their military so that by 1985 they could exert their will wherever they wished. Former secretary Reed asks, what is it about 1985 that captures Brezhnev's attention. Then he points out that both the C.I.A and an independent study led by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology point to world oil shortages beginning in about 1981. Right now, the Soviet Union is supplying oil to its east European satellites who can't afford to buy it from the O.P.E.C. nations. Tom suggests that the Soviets will not let those satellites starve for energy in the mid-80s and points to the 1500-mile border Russia has with oil rich Iran and the conflicting interests of Russia and Norway in the North Sea oil. To those who think detente is working because things seem to be quiet right now, Tom says, "It's always quiet when you're feeding the alligator. When you throw him an arm or leg every now and then. When you drop Angola or Somalia over the side without much of a splash. When you kill the B-1 and deport the MX missile. Under those circumstances," he says, "things are bound to be quiet except for the munching and crunching." Will places like Iran and Norway be fed to the alligator when the time comes? If we started right now to resume production of the B-1, it wouldn't be operational until 1985. If we moved ahead in the MX missiles they couldn't be deployed until 1984. We are negotiating the SALT-II treaty from a position of weakness. Very shortly, a proposed agreement will be presented to the Senate for ratification and without doubt that agreement will be flawed and not in our best interest. It would be easy to say we should respond with a flat no. The answer is not that simple. There should be a most thorough and painstaking study of SALT-II, particularly with regard to our right to verify whether or not Russia could cheat. If the answer is that Russia could, and if the treaty is as it probably will be balanced in Russia's favor, the Senate should reject it. But at the same time, the Congress should be prepared to go forward with a military buildup of our own. Tom Reed reminds us of Somerset Maugham's admonition: "If a nation values anything more than freedom it will lose its freedom and the irony of it is that if it's comfort or money that it values more it will lose that too." We can have the strategic superiority we had in 1962 if we have the will, or as former Air Force Secretary Reed asks, "Will our national leaders face the 1980s alone, with nothing but a broad smile and good intentions to protect us in our final days." This is Ronald Reagan. Thanks for listening. |
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